M as in Mancy: A Fantasy Baseball Experiment (Week 10)

Wondering what all this M-business is about? Catch up here:

We have things to discuss.

First of all, my dreams came true and Koda Glover went on the DL after slipping in the shower while masturbating (or something), which promoted Matt Albers to the role of closer. Awesome! Whistling We Are The Champions to myself, I opened up my browser and went to the Yahoo Fantasy page so I could--

SON OF A BITCH. I missed him by 10 minutes. And to make matters worse, the owner who snagged him is the same guy who has Matt Bush and won't trade him. He's got the M-closer market cornered. 

But that's okay, dear Mancy fans. Because I finally pulled off a big trade. Mookie Betts, welcome to the Mancies! 

Now, let's be clear: this trade is slightly unbalanced. In a vacuum, right now, Kemp and Fulmer are worth more than Mookie. But I had to give up something good to pry away the #2 draft pick, and I feel good about what I've done.

Firstly, I'm betting on Matt Kemp regressing. He's got a .384 BABIP, and his current average of .327 is waaaaay above what he's done in the past four years (he's averaged .268, .265, .287, and .270.) Not to mention his .559 SLG is the second-highest of his career, behind his incredible 2011 season. With Freddie Freeman injured, Kemp is the only real power in the Braves lineup. He's going to start getting pitched around, and my league doesn't count BB as a stat. Already he's slashing .250/.283/.318 for the month of June. I feel real good about trading high. 

That leaves Michael Fulmer. I liked Fulmer on my team, and honestly expect him to keep performing well, even if his HR/FB ratio is worryingly low. But I needed to take a good, long look at my fantasy strategy. My goal for the pitching stats is quantity over quality: trying to snag Wins, QS, and K, while not necessarily caring about ERA or WHIP. This is especially important because, right now, many of the big M-named pitchers are struggling. Two Aces I was relying on, Tanaka and Harvey, are having shit-the-bed years. Fulmer is wasted on such a team. 

So let's look at Mookie Betts. He's underperforming; his .276 BABIP is way below what I would expect someone of his speed, and his Hard Hit Ball % has actually gone up from last year with not much to show for it. So I expect all of that to improve. Then, there's the steals. I really need some help in the Steals category, because right now I'm essentially punting on it: my team's 23 SB puts me in 10th out of 12 teams, and many of those were from Manuel Margot before I dropped him. 

Yeah, it's a gamble. I'm betting on both Kemp and Betts regressing back to the means, which ain't a sure thing. But with Mookie instead of Kemp I'm improving in every offensive category except maybe HR. I think it's a good move. I feel good about it. We'll see.

Other than that, I'm not going to talk much about my team. They sucked last week, and I lost every single offensive category, yet I somehow squeaked out a 5-7 score. That's a win.

I still have Mark Melancon sitting around, wasting a roster spot, doing fuck-all to help me compete in the Saves category. Matt Andriese came off the DL this weekend, pitched 1.0 innings, then promptly went back on the DL. I've been streaming guys like Mike Montgomery, Mike Clevinger, Mike Minor, and Mike Fiers. It's Mikes all the way down. Here's my full transaction list for the past few weeks, a timeline documenting my desperation for those of you looking for some schadenfreude (sidenote: I spelled schadenfreude right on the first try. I'm gunna call that a good omen.)

Mancy Week 10 Transactions.PNG